Tuesday 24 September 2019

Supreme Court rules on Prorogation of Parliament

Please do not get your hopes up if you are a "Remainer" or if you dislike Boris Johnston and don't trust him as our PM. Sure the Supreme Court has ruled that what he did was illegal, but they have just  now made the law on this. It is freshly minted so to speak.  Boris was mischievous, crafty, devious. But that's him. We won't see his head roll and there will be no "punishment" to fit the crime. He has even said he'll just go back and ask for another suspension, this time presumably within the time honoured constraints of parliamentary routines for this time of year.

The judgement is good nontheless because we cannot have a situation where any PM can go and ask the Queen, without having first consulted Parliament, to suspend Parliament outwith the normal time honoured recesses for holidays and electioneering, which always follow standard timescales laid down by tradition. The PM has to be accountable for his actions, and if he has wangled the suspension of Parliament, all we have left is the law. So it wasn't a political matter - it was rightly a legal matter.

But what will happen now is anyone's guess. Who gets to recall Parliament? If it's the government, they'll drag their heels anyway. If not, then who? Has it enough will to organise itself to get it back into session? And thereafter? Who will scrutinise what Johnston might claim to be a deal, no matter how spurious it might seem? Parliament might well debate into the moments before deadline, but the deadline is law. It would need some fresh law to unmake it. I still have a feeling that the ship will slide into the waters of Brexit down the deadline slipway. The decisions of both the Labour and Liberal Parties, while I admire the Lib Dems' Jo Swinson for her bold unequivocal stance, are like bolting the stable doors after the horse has gone. Renegotiating, re-referenduming, re-anything won't be an option once we are out. Going back in will mean we go cap in hand and have to eat what we are offered. It makes all the talk and frantic voting on resolutions at the Labour Party Conference seem a bit vacuous.

So the ruling is a good one for justice, and the accountability of our highest office in the land. But it has no bearing I believe on our ultimate immediate fate with regard to Brexit.


Wednesday 11 September 2019

Why Watson is right about Labour's election strategy

Tom Watson has called for Labour to back Remain unequivocally in their election campaign. I think he's right.

If Labour continue to look like the dithering party then they will simply lose more votes. I am not sure that the public want another referendum now. I think the moment has passed. A party offering a clear Remain message against a clear "Out" party would be enough of a referendum. And I suspect that many voters would respect Labour for coming out with a clear message. Sure they might lose votes in "remain" heartlands but these would be nothing to the votes they would gain from those who did not want a Johnston led government and years of wrangling about "leave" deals, which a Labour insistence on leaving with a deal would inevitably bring on. Of course it would be a risk, and if Labour didn't win the election pundits will argue for years to come about whether it was because they backed Remain or whether it was because Corbyn just didn't have what it takes to persuade the public that he'd be a good leader for the country.

I believe what will actually happen is that Labour will go into an election offering a referendum based on the choices of "Leave but only with a deal", "Leave whatever" and "Remain". I do not think this will be enough to sway the public to vote for them in large enough numbers to command a majority in the next parliament and I fear some kind of Tory hard line machine, since all the rebels look like they have been deselected and quite a few of them ain't going to stand for election again anyway.

Of course all this may well be academic if Johnston manages the sleight of hand I posited in my last blog. And whatever happens in the next short while with regard to this vexed question of Parliament sitting or not, I believe in my heart of hearts that Johnston will weasel us out. O please, let me be wrong. 

Monday 9 September 2019

Why "No Deal" really is still on the table

Everyone thinks that Boris is snookered and that his drastic "No deal" option has been obliterated by a determined and united coalition of opposition and rebel Tory MP's. One could so wish.
I am not convinced and here's why.

Boris is far too conniving and sleekit as we would say in Scots, to be outmaneuvered by such moves. He will go in all appearance (or send his aides) to Brussels under the guise of seeking a deal or an extension, as Parliament has commanded. He will to all appearances be obeying the law. Then he will return, confirming an exit on 31st October and confirming that he has a deal!! The deal will be some absurd sleight of hand which the EU will either deny or be obscure about, and which Boris will plug with all his force of charm and limited but sometimes effective powers of oratory. The electorate will be divided as it has so consistently been since this debacle started, parliament will be furious, the law will be confused, (for who has defined "deal" legally?), and amidst the shambles we will glide out of Europe on the 31st and argue for years whether Boris actually got a deal. You read it here first. I do hope as I often have these days, that I am totally wrong, and I fear I may be right.

If this scenario does not happen though, where does that get us? I agree with Rory Stewart that there is not another deal apart from the one Theresa May brought back. So if by any chance an extension is granted and fresh discussions get underway, the outcome I believe will be substantially the same. The only thing that can give is Parliament, and it has proved remarkably intransigent on uniting over accepting the 'May" deal. So as far as that is concerned, Boris is right. This will push an increasingly fed up electorate into wanting the thing to be done and dusted at any cost. Therefore enough remain minded members of the voting public will change their minds in order to swing Boris back into power to get it over and done with when the General Election is called. The Tory Party will have sought to fill its ranks with "leave" minded MP's and will gain a majority enough to command the will of Parliament and we will then, belatedly, leave with no deal.

Of course the idea of having the thing "done and dusted" is a complete illusion. If we leave with no deal then many years will be spent in negotiation around how we trade with the EU and live alongside them. There will be years of uncertainty and resentment and anger. Watch how in the future the pound's value will slip to around being the same value or less than a euro. Meanwhile the planet will be warming away nicely and asking us how relevant all this is anyway.