Everyone thinks that Boris is snookered and that his drastic "No deal" option has been obliterated by a determined and united coalition of opposition and rebel Tory MP's. One could so wish.
I am not convinced and here's why.
Boris is far too conniving and sleekit as we would say in Scots, to be outmaneuvered by such moves. He will go in all appearance (or send his aides) to Brussels under the guise of seeking a deal or an extension, as Parliament has commanded. He will to all appearances be obeying the law. Then he will return, confirming an exit on 31st October and confirming that he has a deal!! The deal will be some absurd sleight of hand which the EU will either deny or be obscure about, and which Boris will plug with all his force of charm and limited but sometimes effective powers of oratory. The electorate will be divided as it has so consistently been since this debacle started, parliament will be furious, the law will be confused, (for who has defined "deal" legally?), and amidst the shambles we will glide out of Europe on the 31st and argue for years whether Boris actually got a deal. You read it here first. I do hope as I often have these days, that I am totally wrong, and I fear I may be right.
If this scenario does not happen though, where does that get us? I agree with Rory Stewart that there is not another deal apart from the one Theresa May brought back. So if by any chance an extension is granted and fresh discussions get underway, the outcome I believe will be substantially the same. The only thing that can give is Parliament, and it has proved remarkably intransigent on uniting over accepting the 'May" deal. So as far as that is concerned, Boris is right. This will push an increasingly fed up electorate into wanting the thing to be done and dusted at any cost. Therefore enough remain minded members of the voting public will change their minds in order to swing Boris back into power to get it over and done with when the General Election is called. The Tory Party will have sought to fill its ranks with "leave" minded MP's and will gain a majority enough to command the will of Parliament and we will then, belatedly, leave with no deal.
Of course the idea of having the thing "done and dusted" is a complete illusion. If we leave with no deal then many years will be spent in negotiation around how we trade with the EU and live alongside them. There will be years of uncertainty and resentment and anger. Watch how in the future the pound's value will slip to around being the same value or less than a euro. Meanwhile the planet will be warming away nicely and asking us how relevant all this is anyway.
I am not convinced and here's why.
Boris is far too conniving and sleekit as we would say in Scots, to be outmaneuvered by such moves. He will go in all appearance (or send his aides) to Brussels under the guise of seeking a deal or an extension, as Parliament has commanded. He will to all appearances be obeying the law. Then he will return, confirming an exit on 31st October and confirming that he has a deal!! The deal will be some absurd sleight of hand which the EU will either deny or be obscure about, and which Boris will plug with all his force of charm and limited but sometimes effective powers of oratory. The electorate will be divided as it has so consistently been since this debacle started, parliament will be furious, the law will be confused, (for who has defined "deal" legally?), and amidst the shambles we will glide out of Europe on the 31st and argue for years whether Boris actually got a deal. You read it here first. I do hope as I often have these days, that I am totally wrong, and I fear I may be right.
If this scenario does not happen though, where does that get us? I agree with Rory Stewart that there is not another deal apart from the one Theresa May brought back. So if by any chance an extension is granted and fresh discussions get underway, the outcome I believe will be substantially the same. The only thing that can give is Parliament, and it has proved remarkably intransigent on uniting over accepting the 'May" deal. So as far as that is concerned, Boris is right. This will push an increasingly fed up electorate into wanting the thing to be done and dusted at any cost. Therefore enough remain minded members of the voting public will change their minds in order to swing Boris back into power to get it over and done with when the General Election is called. The Tory Party will have sought to fill its ranks with "leave" minded MP's and will gain a majority enough to command the will of Parliament and we will then, belatedly, leave with no deal.
Of course the idea of having the thing "done and dusted" is a complete illusion. If we leave with no deal then many years will be spent in negotiation around how we trade with the EU and live alongside them. There will be years of uncertainty and resentment and anger. Watch how in the future the pound's value will slip to around being the same value or less than a euro. Meanwhile the planet will be warming away nicely and asking us how relevant all this is anyway.
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